Former prime minister Andrej Babis (ANO) would win the first round of the Czech presidential election with 25.5% of the vote, ahead of General Petr Pavel with 21%, according to the latest election model from the Median agency.
The poll confirmed that these are still the two favourites to advance to the second round. However, Babis, current leader of the opposition, has not yet declared that he will run in the election.
If no candidate wins a majority of the vote in the first round, the top two candidates advance to the second round.
Pavel has slightly more potential voters (34.4%) than Babis (33.5%)
In the previous Median model released in early June, Babis was ahead with 28.5%, followed by Pavel with 19.5%. Pavel, the former Czech Army chief-of-staff and head of the NATO Military Committee, is thus gradually improving his position, while support for Babis is decreasing.
Similarly to two months ago, the third most popular candidate is trade union leader Josef Stredula, who is now polling at 9%.
Economist and former rector of Mendel University, Danuse Nerudova, had the support of 7% of respondents, with senator Pavel Fischer (unaffiliated) on 6%.
Fischer is the candidate with the third highest number of potential voters (21.1%)
Babis has the biggest group of firmly convinced voters, who said they are certainly to vote for him (19%). Pavel has 11.2% of such firmly convinced voters.
A majority of the respondents intend to take part in the election but are still undecided who they will support.
61% said they plan to take part in the first round of the election, around the same as the turnout in the first round of the previous presidential elections in January 2018.
Babis’s support comes mainly from people older than 64 and people with primary or secondary education without the final school-leaving exam. Pavel has support particularly among young people aged 18 to 24, university graduates, and business owners. Stredula is the most popular among pensioners.
The Median poll was carried out from 18 May to 8 June among 1,038 people aged over 18.
According to another election model from the Ipsos agency released ten days ago, Babis would win the first round clearly (31.7%) ahead of Pavel (23.8%), and Nerudova would be the third most successful with 10.8%.
The first round of the presidential election will be held in the Czech Republic on 13-14 January 2023. If necessary, the final round will take place two weeks later.
Median election model – first round of Czech presidential election (in percent):
| Candidate | May 2022 | June 2022 |
| Andrej Babis | 28.5 | 25.5 |
| Petr Pavel | 19.5 | 21.0 |
| Josef Stredula | 7.5 | 9.0 |
| Danuse Nerudova | 3.5 | 7.0 |
| Pavel Fischer | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Miroslava Nemcova | 6.0 | 4.5 |
| Marek Hilser | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| Karel Janecek | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| Vaclav Klaus Sr. | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Lenka Bradacova | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Alena Vitaskova | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Michael Kocab | – | 2.0 |
